Research Archives

August 31, 2007

"All the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated"

My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds, the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing their own models.

"Heretical Thoughts About Science and Society," by Freeman Dyson, edge, August 8, 2007

Hat tip to Arnold Kling

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January 29, 2006

Fructose water and set point

So Roberts tried to game this Stone Age system. What if he could keep his thermostat low by sending fewer flavor signals? One obvious solution was a bland diet, but that didn't interest Roberts. (He is, in fact, a serious foodie.) After a great deal of experimenting, he discovered two agents capable of tricking the set-point system. A few tablespoons of unflavored oil (he used canola or extra light olive oil), swallowed a few times a day between mealtimes, gave his body some calories but didn't trip the signal to stock up on more. Several ounces of sugar water (he used granulated fructose, which has a lower glycemic index than table sugar) produced the same effect. (Sweetness does not seem to act as a "flavor" in the body's caloric-signaling system.)

The results were astounding. Roberts lost 40 pounds and never gained it back.

"Does the Truth Lie Within?" by Stephen Dubner and Steve Levitt, NYT Magazine, September 11, 2005

I can verify the appetite suppressing properties of the fructose water. A glass of fructose water and I can easily go without lunch. The only problem is that the sophists lure the unsuspecting to lunch anyway.

"Seth Roberts in NYTimes," by Alex Tabarrok, Marginal Revolution, September 12, 2005

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"Stopping the Swings" - bipolar disorder

Pettigrew’s students rapidly alternated between seeing the horizontal and vertical stripes—it took less than 10 seconds. But when Pettigrew looked through the apparatus, he switched very slowly—10-20 seconds. This “slow hemispheric switching rate” occurs, Pettigrew hypothesizes, because bipolar people are stuck in one hemisphere of the brain at a time.

After his discovery, Pettigrew tested the switch rates of 18 bipolar adults when they were neither depressed nor manic. Compared to 49 normal controls, the bipolar subjects had a significantly slower rate of alternation. And the more severe their disorder, the slower they switched. Individuals with less severe illness sometimes had switch rates that overlapped with the rates of normal people, so there is no cutoff level above which he can be sure someone is safe from the disorder. Still, says Pettigrew, the method works fairly well, even on kids down to five years of age whom he has tested with only slightly modified procedures.

Pettigrew’s current research uses slow switching to identify otherwise healthy young people who might be vulnerable to the development of bipolar disorder. “Having identified ‘slow switchers,’ I then follow them to see if the slow rivalry rate is a predictor of later episodes of mania and/or depression.” This research will help clarify whether switching rates can be an effective diagnostic test.

"Stopping the Swings," by Katherine Miller, Science Notes 2001

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November 26, 2005

"The Biology of Beauty"

Scientists have found that a woman’s hormones relate to how attractive she is. The researchers at the University of St Andrews, found that women with higher levels of the female sex hormone, oestrogen, have more attractive looking faces.

Composite faces of the 10 women with highest (left) and 10 with lowest (right) levels of oestrogen. CREDIT: www.perceptionlab.com

The new study, led by psychologist Miriam Law Smith, could explain the underlying reason why men prefer women with feminine faces. It is the first study to demonstrate that women’s facial appearance is linked to their underlying health because oestrogen is the hormone which impacts on women’s reproductive health and fertility. These effects on appearance are likely to depend on the action of oestrogen throughout puberty.

Law Smith and a team of psychologists at the University’s Perception Lab photographed 59 young women’s faces aged between 18 and 25 and analysed their sex hormone levels. Women with higher levels of oestrogen were rated as more attractive, healthy and feminine looking than those with lower levels.

Interestingly, no relationship between appearance and oestrogen was found in women wearing make- up. Researchers believe that while make-up improves facial appearance it may be masking cues normally seen in the face.

Law Smith said: “Women are effectively advertising their general fertility with their faces. Our findings could explain why men universally seem to prefer feminine women’s faces. In evolutionary terms, it makes sense for men to favour feminine fertile women, those that did would have had more babies.”

The research is published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society.

"The Biology of Beauty," University of St. Andrews, November 2, 2005

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